Bitcoin holders booked record 2026 profits as spot demand shrank, and CryptoQuant now sees a near-term correction risk with its first support at $80,000.
Key Facts
Bitcoin holders realized 25,700 BTC in profit on Sept. 22, the most in a single day this year, according to CryptoQuant.
CryptoQuant reads record profit-taking and shrinking spot demand as a near-term correction risk, with first support at $80,000.
K33 Research reads the same thin spot trading as sellers running out, and Bitcoin briefly topped $85,000 on Wednesday.
Bitcoin (BTC) holders booked their largest single day of profits this year on Sept. 22, and traders are sitting on their widest paper gains since December 2024, according to CryptoQuant. If a pullback follows, the firm puts first support at $80,000, about 4% below Wednesday's price.
Bitcoin has slipped back from its Sept. 21 high of about $87,400 as holders cash in and fresh buying fades, CryptoQuant said in its weekly report on Tuesday. Spot demand has shrunk by 170,000 BTC over 30 days by the firm's measure. The firm sees a near-term correction risk, though it says the bull trend holds as long as its support levels do.
Bitcoin traded at $83,720 as of 10:29 a.m. ET Wednesday, down 0.4% over 24 hours, CoinMarketCap data shows.
"These are typical signals of a rally losing momentum and risks of a correction," Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant's head of research, wrote on X on Sept. 25.
Why Has Bitcoin Stalled? Holders Are Booking Record Profits
Holders realized 25,700 BTC in profit on Sept. 22, the day after that eight-month high, CryptoQuant found.
Traders' unrealized profit margin, the paper gain on the coins they hold, has reached 33%. That is the highest since December 2024. CryptoQuant said stretched margins have historically preceded selling.
Who Is Still Buying? Futures Traders More Than Spot Buyers
Growth in futures demand slowed from 164,000 BTC on Sept. 14 to 16,000 BTC on Tuesday, CryptoQuant said.
Bitcoin futures volume ran about 13 times spot volume over the past 24 hours, CoinGlass data shows.
Inflows to US spot Bitcoin ETFs have also cooled, to $66 million on Tuesday from $999 million on Sept. 21, Farside data shows.
How Far Could Bitcoin Fall? CryptoQuant Sees $80K Support
CryptoQuant puts first support at the 365-day moving average, near $80,000. A close above that line last week confirmed a new bull market, according to the firm.
Below it sit the 200-day average near $71,000 and traders' realized price near $67,000, the average cost of their coins. The bull trend stays intact as long as those levels hold, CryptoQuant said.
What Would Strengthen the Bull Case? A Close Above $85K
Bitcoin briefly cleared $85,000 on Wednesday morning, touching about $85,600, CoinMarketCap data shows. About $53 million in short positions were liquidated over four hours, according to CoinGlass. The price then slipped back toward $83,700.
More long-term holder coins sit between $84,000 and $85,000 than at any other price, Glassnode said on Tuesday. The firm said Bitcoin needs to hold above that band for the rally to continue.
K33 Research reads the thin spot market differently. It called low spot volume during the rise "a sign of sustained sell-side exhaustion" on Monday. The firm also sees more room for Bitcoin to rise than fall.
Bitcoin sits about $3,700 above CryptoQuant's first support and about $1,300 below the top of Glassnode's holder band.
"Right now, that spot demand remains the missing piece, and without it, this rebound driven mostly by futures could quickly become unstable," CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost wrote on Tuesday.
Further Reading: Bitcoin vs. Gold and Stocks: Why Crypto Correlates with Other Assets
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